Wednesday 28 May 2008

Scotland's Political Awakening

NOTE: SORRY ABOUT THE APPEARANCE OF THE TABLES. I THINK I KNOW WHAT THE CAUSE IS. IN THE MEANTIME I HAVE INSERTED "/" BETWEEN THE HEADINGS AND FIGURES.

"ask not what your country can do for you, rather ask what you can do for your country."

- President John F. Kennedy (from his Inauguration Speech - January 20, 1961)

The Scottish Parliament elections in May 2007 changed the political map of Scotland in a way that showed that the people could no longer be taken for granted - particularly by the Labour Party. Many years ago the Labour Member of Parliament (MP) for Central Fife said that "the people of Fife would vote for a turnip if it had a red label". In the years following the unsuccessful referendum in 1979, for a devolved Scottish Assembly, political confidence amongst the electorate in Scotland plummeted. In Central Fife support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) fell from over 30% to just over 11%.

The voting method for the Scottish Parliament elections is a hybrid of the First Past The Post method and a 'top-up' from a Closed Regional List using the d'Hondt Formula to produce a broadly proportional result. There are 73 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSP's) elected by FPTP and 56 from the Regional Lists. Here is an overall breakdown of the results of last year's elections to the Scottish Parliament -

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - MAY 2007

PARTYVOTE%SEATS%SEATS%
TYPE: [A]/ FPTP [B]/ ALL SP [C]
SNP 32.70 /28.77 /36.43
LAB 32.26 /50.68 /35.66
LIBDEM 16.23 /15.07 /12.40
CON 16.65 /5.48 /13.18
OTHER 2.16/ 0.00 /2.33
TOTALS 100.00 /100.00 /100.00
PARTY DIFFERENCE /SEATS
TYPE: [B-A]/ [C-A] /FPTP /ALL SP
SNP -3.93 /+3.73 /21 /47
LAB +18.42 /+3.40 /37 /46
LIBDEM -1.16 /-3.83 /11 /16
CON -11.17 /-3.47 /4 /17
OTHER -2.16 /0.00 /0 /3
TOTALS -/-/73 /129

The FPTP results show that the Labour Party benefits disproportionately from that method of voting. Average voter turnout was 51.46%, hopefully the Scottish Parliament election results, combined with those for the Councils, will bring about an increase in voter turnout which was regularly 65%-75% about 25 years ago. Before the election campaign the Labour Party was in a state of panic, during the campaign it became absolute panic and since the elections they've been completely clueless.

The election results for Central Fife since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999 are as follows -

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN CENTRAL FIFE
PARTY VOTE% /VOTE%/ VOTE%
YEAR: 2007 /2003 /1999
SNP 44.20 /30.59 /30.91
LAB 39.88 /41.38 /57.31
LIBDEM 8.49 /6.74 /5.94
CON 7.43 /7.04 /5.84
SSP - /5.43 /-
IND - /8.82 /-
TOTALS 100.00 /100.00 /100.00

An aspect of the elections in Scotland, last year, that was overlooked by the media outwith Scotland was the fact that there were Council elections in Scotland on the same day. They were overshadowed by the fiasco of rejected ballot papers in the Scottish Parliament elections, which was mainly due to political interference by a UK Government Minister (Labour) in the design of the ballot paper. The Labour/Liberal Democrat Scottish Executive was also warned of the confusion that would result from having the Scottish Parliament and Council elections on the same day using three different voting methods - they chose to ignore it. For the first time the Single Transferable Vote (STV) method of Proportional Representation was used for the Council elections in Scotland. The introduction of STV was met with strong resistance from within the Labour Party. The local 'fiefdoms' and 'one-party states' of the Labour Party in Scotland have been ended forever and the 'politics of fear' as well as the 'control freakery' that permeates that Party no longer work. In the media reporting of the Council elections in Fife mention was made of the dominance of Scottish politics by the Labour Party for the last 50 years saying "however, in parts of Fife it is nearer 100 years". The table below shows the comparison to the number of Councillors (by Party) that were elected in 2003 when FPTP was used -

COUNCILLORS ELECTED IN SCOTLAND
PARTY 2007 /CHANGE / 2003
METHOD: STV / +or- /FPTP
SNP 363 / +182 /181
LAB 348 / -161 /509
IND 192 / -39 /231
LIBDEM 166 / -9 /175
CON 143 / +20 /123

All of the SNP candidates in Central Fife who stood for election to Fife Council were elected. In Central Fife it used to be suggested that in the Levenmouth part of the constituency it would be easier to weigh the Labour vote than count it. Inevitably, at the count, a Labour activist would shout across the hall - "Someone in Methil voted Tory [Conservative]" - not any longer.

After having witnessed the significant changes in elected political representation achieved by the use of STV I have no hesitation in recommending its use in multi-member constituencies. Using STV the 'political virility' symbol of the size of a majority and the 'wasted vote' argument cease to exist. The Alternative Vote (AV) method is also a majoritarian method like FPTP, however, it has the advantage that, unlike FPTP, the winner has to obtain 50% of the vote. In a genuine democracy an electoral system (method of voting, constituency boundaries etc.) exists for the benefit of the people. The electoral system and the people DO NOT exist for the benefit of political parties.

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